If an inflationary period can be foreseen, how can it be prevented? It can only be prevented (or ended once it has begun) by sucking out of the economy all the excess money that is causing the problem. This can be difficult at any time, but especially difficult in the circumstances the U.S. finds itself in now with the extremely rapid expansion of the money supply, and the rates of government spending and borrowing.
There are only a few ways to get money out of the economy once it has been issued. They all involve monetary and fiscal policies. On the monetary side, the Fed has to stop digging the hole. The printing presses have to stop excessive printing. Obviously, this tightens the money supply. Secondly, the Fed can use the banking system to take money out of circulation by increasing their reserve requirements. (It is the opinion of some that this is nearly all the "banking reform" that is currently needed. If you don't want banks to take big risks with their money, make them hold more of it in reserve.) To make it easier for banks to do this, the Fed will pay a higher rate of interest on money that the banks park with the Fed.
Higher interest rates will be a broad-based feature of inflation control. Higher rates take money out of the economy, and also serve to reduce demand for goods and services. Higher rates discourage individual and corporate borrowing. They result in higher rates of savings.
On the fiscal side, government spending has to decrease. Also, government borrowing has to decline. Finally, higher taxes will take money out of the economy. And with less disposable income, demand for goods and services declines.
So, what do you think the prospects are that the U.S. can avoid a period of inflation? As for monetary policy, these things can be done. As for the fiscal side of the coin, I think we can be sure that taxes will go up, but will government spending and borrowing be curtailed? Unless that happens, the likelihood of inflation is increased.
With your interest and knowledge as to how to fix some of these current problems, why aren't you in public office?
ReplyDeleteproof that I read your blog! Anna
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