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Thursday, February 11, 2010

IS INFLATION ON THE WAY?

Yes. It is. There is no question about that. The only question is whether hyperinflation is on the way.
First of all, hyperinflation is only possible if paper money is in use. Back in the gold rush days, new discoveries put more gold in circulation and reduced its value temporarily. This was a kind of inflation, but it was limited in its effects because soon the amount of goods available for purchase caught up with the money supply as the gold came into wider circulation. And the supply of gold was soon stabilized as were prices of goods.
With paper money, the currency isn't tied to availability of precious metal. Its supply can be expanded for almost nothing at any time. It's just as east to print a $10 bill as it is to print a single. As many times as you want. And this is why inflation exists: The amount of money in circulation out-paces the amount of goods produced, and the availability of services for purchase. The thumbnail definition of inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods".
So understand this: the only cause of modern inflation is a government that prints too much money.
Why would a government deliberately debase its own currency by over-printing? The government needs money to operate, and politicians need it to support the programs they want. The money can only be raised in limited ways. These include taxation, borrowing,and imposition of fees, tariffs and duties. Citizens don't mind any of these things as long as somebody else pays the freight. But it becomes very unpopular if it affects you personally. But who knows, and who cares, if the government just prints a little more money here and there? So it's easy for the U.S. Treasury to sell bonds to the Federal Reserve who pays for them with notes fresh off the presses. Politically, this is a simple solution.
It looks like nobody really pays. Of course, everyone who holds the currency pays, because prices inevitably go up as the value of the money declines. The more there is of anything, the less value it has.
Another reason the government may be willing to promote inflation by over-issuing money is that it can pay back its debts with dollars cheaper than the ones it borrowed.
So these are the reasons the U.S. money supply has nearly doubled in recent times. The government needs to spend money, and it has to come from somewhere. So we're printing and borrowing as fast as we can. The more debt we accumulate, the greater the incentive to print more money.
Inflation is on the way. But will it go hyper?

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